BEIJING -- An aging population and an estimated 72 million new households earning more than $5,000 per year will present pharmaceutical and luxury good manufacturers with a potentially lucrative market, according to demographic research.

The number of people in the so-called 'consumption class,' households with disposable income left over after meeting basic needs, will rise from 39.4 million to 111.7 million over the next 10 years, according to Nicole Burgess, a researcher with Asian Demographics.

Many of these people will be entering the 'empty nest' stage of their lives, after their children move out, when they have additional income and large savings that could be spent on travel, health care and luxury items, said Burgess.

During the same period, China will undergo a large demographic shift as the number of children under age 10 is expected to fall by 18 million while adults over age 60 will increase by 76 million.

It is not clear what long-term affect these demographic shifts will have on spending patterns of young people, who have traditionally born the burden of caring for their elders, said Burgess.

China's population will peak by 2019 at 1.31 billion people and begin to decline, according to research by Asian Demographics. By 2024, adults over 60 will be 25.2 percent of population, while children under 10 will be just 6.4 percent. (Interfax-China)

February 17, 2006